Uncertainty

↑ 3 References

Uncertainty

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Uncertainty

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Variation

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natural variation within a range of probability

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no further investigation

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Ambiguity

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insufficient evidence of project state

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may also be imprecise definition

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discovery is possible

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Vagueness

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knowable but not yet decided

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choices can lead to certainty

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Surprise

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Claude Shannon

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Surprises express more information value

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There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts

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surprise requires an update of your priors

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Bayesian updating

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Decision trees

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always include the do nothing, pause, and cancel options

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Risk

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uncertain future condition associated with some probability

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can be the third dimension in a cost / duration project Tradespaces

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Risk Management

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Biases

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read Daniel Kahneman

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confirmation

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hubris

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Uncertainty

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aleatory uncertainty

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observation does not improve predictive power

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Markov Decision Process

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Curse of Dimensionality

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exponential growth if we discretize state space

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epistemic uncertainty

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observation does improve predictive power

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Reinforcement learning

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use neural networks to partially estimate outcomes at higher dimensions, somewhat side-stepping the Curse of Dimensionality

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static

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unknown properties don’t change over time

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dynamic

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unknown properties may change over time

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POMDP

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interaction uncertainty

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game theoretic

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Uncertainty

↑ 3 References

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