Thinking is the act of shifting beliefs

First, we understand that A belief is a degree of certainty.

When we see our beliefs as a Map and Territory|Map, then we see that thinking is our reassessment of that map.

Our beliefs are really probabilities that a certain world exists. If we believe something to be true, it really means we believe that something is 99.999% true. Even that level of certainty is hard to achieve, since 100% certainty is infinite certainty.

With evidence and insight we can update those beliefs, and the mathematically accurate way to update those beliefs is using Bayes’ Theorem.^[ Rationality, From A to Z#^0917ad] Even if we don’t choose to be mathematically precise when we update our beliefs, it is useful to have an internalized version of Bayes’ Theorem so that we can avoid making systematically incorrect updates to our beliefs.

(any other reasons why we need the internalized bayes?)