Probabilistic Thinking


A philosophy of A posteriori thought.

A prerequisite for Probabilistic Thinking may be Numerate thinking.

Can Probabilistic Thinking be a Unified theory for reason and belief updating? It would need to fully subordinate Bayes’ Theorem and Solomonoff Induction (the latter of which may already be a Unified theory of its own).

Probabilistic Thinking requires thinking mathematically, at least in broad strokes. I’ll try to map out the Technical underpinnings of probabilistic thinking.


Using probabilistic thinking involves Epistemic Rationality.

  1. Bayes’ Theorem: posteriors are determined by a combination of prior probabilities and data / likelihood
  1. Predictability: truth is determined through what can be predicted ( #Knowledge as testable prediction)

(2 and 3 redundant)