Hurdles

Sometimes it is difficult to identify the causal chain with confidence, but the lower cost of the intervention should be considered against the lower confidence in the success of the intervention.

Let’s say we believe eating processed foods accounts for a 20% increase in the chance of having heart disease. Then, as long as we believe reducing an individual’s processed foods consumption is < 20% as costly as curing their heart disease (which may be impossible?), then we should still be focusing on the upstream solution that is lower cost and simpler.