Probabilities have orders of magnitude

Probabilities have orders of magnitude

It is important to understand the difficulty required to shift probabilities, and how that difficulty changes depending on the prior probability.

We can create markers of important shifting areas and call them orders of magnitude for probability. One can use Bayes’ Theorem to create these markers.

What are the orders of magnitude?

Odds ratios and log odds (decibels) are good candidates. Using log odds reveals the distance between uncertainties.

Maybe create markers for how much one “piece of evidence” would shift a probability, then ten “pieces of evidence”, 100 “pieces of evidence”, etc.