Probabilities have orders of magnitude

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Probabilities have orders of magnitude

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It is important to understand the difficulty required to shift probabilities, and how that difficulty changes depending on the prior probability.

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We can create markers of important shifting areas and call them orders of magnitude for probability. One can use Bayes’ Theorem to create these markers.

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What are the orders of magnitude?

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Odds ratios and log odds (decibels) are good candidates. Using log odds reveals the distance between uncertainties.

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Maybe create markers for how much one “piece of evidence” would shift a probability, then ten “pieces of evidence”, 100 “pieces of evidence”, etc.

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