System Design/EM.412 meeting Bryan Moser program management
Donald Schön is one of Bryan’s favorite thinkers
Small changes in intermediate mapping can lead to significant reframing of complex systems
Uncertainty
Variation
natural variation within a range of probability
no further investigation
Ambiguity
insufficient evidence of project state
may also be imprecise definition
discovery is possible
Vagueness
knowable but not yet decided
choices can lead to certainty
->
Surprise
Claude Shannon
Surprises express more information value
There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts
surprise requires an update of your priors
Bayesian updating
Decision trees
always include the do nothing, pause, and cancel options
Risk
uncertain future condition associated with some probability
can be the third dimension in a cost / duration project Tradespaces
Risk Management
Biases
read Daniel Kahneman
confirmation
hubris