Need to expand on this.

id:: 62428739-edef-4db1-af64-6e1ba3d93bbc

You can use a log odds calculator to see that 50% confidence (log odds = 0), 73% confidence (log odds = 1) ,and 88% confidence (log odds = 2) are each an order of magnitude apart

In other words, it should be as hard to update one’s confidence from 73% to 88% as it is to update from 50% to 73%

Same with updating from 98.2% confidence to 99.3% confidence (log odds = 4 to log odds = 5)