Bayesian updating
An intuitive way to think about updating according to Bayes’ Theorem is to understand at least the following:
If you are very confident in your theory, seeing an outcome that matches your hypothesis should only update your confidence a very small amount. If you see an outcome that does not match your hypothesis, you should update your confidence significantly, since you had assigned a very low probability that that outcome would occur.
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- Map and Territory: The Map is how we understand the world to be. The Territory is the reality of the world. This would be considered A posteriori thought. This is where ideas like Bayesian updating will be useful.